Excel .xlsx · 4 sheets

Driver-Based Financial Model

Summit HVAC 2024–2027 · Change a driver cell and the full model recalculates.

Blue cells

Assumption inputs — the only cells you edit. Change avg ticket, headcount, or margin and everything flows through.

Green cells

Formula outputs — linked across sheets. P&L pulls from Drivers; Cash pulls from P&L + Headcount.

Green totals

SUM/calculated subtotals that auto-update. EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, and Runway are all derived.

📊 summit-hvac-financial-model-2027.xlsx · Sample · Fictional data

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D5 fx =C5*1.085

Drivers

P&L

Headcount

Cash

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G
1	SUMMIT HVAC — DRIVER ASSUMPTIONS
2			2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	Notes
3	Revenue Drivers
4	Avg Service Ticket ($)		342	371	402	430	Manual → formula
5	Jobs / Tech / Month		22.4	24.1	25.6	26.6
6	Tech Headcount (avg)		18	22	24	28
7	Maintenance Plan Renewal %		68%	71%	74%	76%
8
9	Margin Drivers
10	Gross Margin %		41.2%	42.8%	44.0%	45.5%
11	Parts Cost % Revenue		18.4%	20.5%	18.0%	17.5%
12	G&A as % Revenue		12.2%	11.4%	10.8%	10.0%
13
14	Derived: Revenue (from Drivers)
15	Service Revenue ($K)		$6,920K	$8,240K	$11,006K	$13,480K
16	EBITDA ($K)		$1,040K	$1,410K	$1,970K	$2,620K

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	P&L — Linked from Drivers sheet
2			2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E
3	Revenue
4	Service Revenue		$6,920K	$8,240K	$11,006K	$13,480K
5	Total Revenue		$6,920K	$8,240K	$11,006K	$13,480K
6	Cost of Revenue
7	Labor — Field		$2,524K	$2,960K	$3,764K	$4,560K
8	Parts & Materials		$1,273K	$1,544K	$1,981K	$2,359K
9	Gross Profit		$2,852K	$3,373K	$4,843K	$6,135K
10	Operating Expenses
11	G&A (incl. payroll)		$845K	$940K	$1,188K	$1,348K
12	Marketing		$276K	$320K	$480K	$560K
13	D&A		$210K	$248K	$288K	$362K
14	EBITDA		$1,040K	$1,410K	$1,970K	$2,620K
15	EBITDA Margin		15.0%	17.1%	17.9%	19.4%

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	HEADCOUNT & COMPENSATION
2			2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E
3	Field (Revenue-Generating)
4	Technicians (avg)		18	22	24	28
5	Avg Comp (tech, $K)		$62K	$65K	$68K	$71K
6	Field Payroll Total		$1,116K	$1,430K	$1,632K	$1,988K
7	G&A
8	Dispatcher / Admin (FTEs)		3	4	5	5
9	Avg Comp (G&A, $K)		$58K	$60K	$62K	$64K
10	Owner Draw (normalized)		$220K	$248K	$248K	$260K
11	Total G&A Payroll		$394K	$488K	$558K	$580K
12	Fleet
13	Service Vans (count)		18	22	26	30
14	Fleet D&A (annual, $K)		$108K	$132K	$156K	$180K

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	CASH FLOW (INDIRECT METHOD)
2			2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E
3	Operating Activities
4	EBITDA		$1,040K	$1,410K	$1,970K	$2,620K
5	Δ Working Capital		($84K)	($112K)	($172K)	($132K)
6	Taxes (eff. rate 22%)		($229K)	($310K)	($433K)	($576K)
7	Cash from Operations		$727K	$988K	$1,365K	$1,912K
8	Investing Activities
9	CapEx — Fleet		($48K)	($72K)	($240K)	($120K)
10	CapEx — Depot & Equipment		$0	$0	($240K)	($60K)
11	Cash from Investing		($48K)	($72K)	($480K)	($180K)
12	Financing Activities
13	SBA Loan Drawdown		$0	$0	$1,200K	$0
14	Debt Service		($187K)	($187K)	($327K)	($327K)
15	Owner Distributions		($220K)	($248K)	($248K)	($260K)
16	Net Change in Cash		$272K	$481K	$1,510K	$1,145K
17	Ending Cash Balance		$168K	$382K	$1,892K	$3,037K
18	Cash Runway (months)		2.4	3.8	13.7	19.1

Fictional company — Summit HVAC, LLC. Generated by RollForge from representative trade-business data.